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Monday's Market Open
Great Monday
By VHLA ·
Dear Winner,
What a fucking way to start off a week that decides the near term fate of the world. We got the UN in New York, some Saudi Barrels back online, and Europe on the brink of going to war coming up.
Today though, Crypto’s mooning, Meta cooked with Muse, WTI fell down to $92 and the NASDAQ just printed a new all time high.
Might get fucked up by China and $BABA since they just dropped a new chip to rival $NVDA’s H100 inside the mainland, regardless
Lock in.
THE TAPE
Where We're At
As of Monday, Sept 21 • Close
| INDICIES | LAST | CHG | DAY |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Best day since early August | 7,764.70 | +114.20 | +1.49% |
| Nasdaq First record close since June | 27,122.09 | +599.55 | +2.26% |
| Dow Snaps three losing weeks, for now | 52,048.83 | +366.19 | +0.71% |
| Russell 2000 Small caps along for the ride | 2,876.06 | +15.73 | +0.55% |
| TSX Back above 36,000 | 36,009.40 | +202.75 | +0.57% |
| VIX Fear gauge | [X] | [X] | [X] |
| US TREASURYS | LAST | CHG | DAY |
| 2-Year Still pricing one more hike | 4.751% | -0.5 bps | -0.11% |
| 10-Year Off Friday's 5.00% close | 4.951% | -4.9 bps | -0.98% |
| 30-Year Long end catches a break | 5.280% | -4.8 bps | -0.90% |
| CRUDE | LAST | CHG | DAY |
| WTI (Oct) Expires Tuesday | $95.78 | -4.52 | -4.51% |
| Brent (Nov) Fourth straight loss, low $98.98 | $100.34 | -3.53 | -3.40% |
| METALS | LAST | CHG | DAY |
| Gold Dec futures | [X] | [X] | [X] |
| Silver Dec futures | [X] | [X] | [X] |
| Copper Dec futures | [X] | [X] | [X] |
| CROSS-ASSET | LAST | CHG | DAY |
| Bitcoin $300M+ in shorts liquidated | [X] | [X] | +6.5% |
| DXY Dollar index | [X] | [X] | [X] |
Oil blinked, chips ripped, and the Nasdaq printed its first record since June. The Fed still has one more hike penciled in.
News
The Recap
“Are you seriously longing Fartcoin on leverage again?”
USA: The Nasdaq ripped 2.26% to 27,122.09, its first record close since June. $INTC +12%, $META +11%, $AMD +10% and briefly a $1 trillion company.
Tonight: S&P’s flat and Nasdaq futures are up 0.2%. Korea's Kospi opened up 2.2%, Japan is closed for a holiday.
Oil: Brent settled $100.34, down 3.4%, fourth straight loss, after touching $98.98. WTI's expiring October contract fell 4.5% to $95.78. Tehran says any new strike gets retaliation across the region.
Bonds: The 10-year eased to 4.95% after closing last week at exactly 5.00%. The 30-year slid to 5.28%. Call it a breather.
Greenland: The US, Denmark and Greenland struck a security deal Friday, signing expected at the UN this week. Greenland Energy +159%, Greenland Mines up over 200%. Nothing says national security like a triple-digit day on a pre-revenue explorer.
Canada: The TSX gained 0.57% to 36,009.40, back above 36,000. Tech and a global risk-on day did the lifting, and $SHOP ran 7%.
Crypto: Bitcoin blew through $86K, up about 6.5%, with more than $300M in shorts liquidated Congress killed the crypto bill and bitcoin ripped anyway.
News
THE WEEK AHEAD
Tuesday
Alibaba's Apsara Conference in Hangzhou, through Thursday. Chip and Qwen model updates expected
UN General Assembly opens. Trump addresses it; Iran's Pezeshkian lands with the delegation
WTI October contract expires
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global flash PMIs for September (prior: manufacturing 54.9, services 52.5). First hard data since the hike
Earnings: $AZO, $THO before the bell; $KBH after the bell
Wednesday
Pezeshkian addresses the UN
Meta Connect kicks off, Zuckerberg keynote on Muse and wearables
Earnings: $GIS, $PAYX, $CTAS, $CBRL before the bell
Thursday
Trump and Xi summit at the White House. Trade, tariffs, Taiwan and AI on the table
Earnings: $DRI, $BB before the bell; $COST after the bell
Friday
8:30 AM ET: Durable goods orders (August)
10:00 AM ET: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, final (September)
Opinion
China Built Its Own Chip. Now What?
Alibaba's chip unit, T-Head, is pushing the Zhenwu M890 back into the spotlight as its Apsara Conference kicks off.
The specs: 3x the performance of its last chip, 144GB of memory, 800GB per second between chips, and a design built for AI agents. T-Head says it has shipped 560,000 Zhenwu chips to 400+ customers, and the V900 is slated for Q3 2027 with another 3x. Alibaba is spending about $53 billion on AI and cloud over three years to fill the racks.
Why it matters for the market: China is the one big AI buyer that can walk away from $NVDA. Counterpoint's take is that the M890 can't match an H200 on raw power but is a believable H200 replacement inside China. That's all Beijing needs. Every Zhenwu in a Chinese data center is a GPU Nvidia doesn't sell there.
It also changes Thursday. For two years, chip export controls were Washington's best card against Beijing. Xi now walks into the White House with a domestic alternative already shipping. Hard to squeeze a guy who's already building his own.
The warts, flat. Volume is the problem. 560,000 chips total is small next to what Nvidia ships to a single US hyperscaler in a year, and T-Head depends on Chinese foundries like SMIC for capacity, which is tight. The Nasdaq just printed a record on US chip names, and none of that demand goes away because Hangzhou put out a spec sheet.
So the read: bad for Nvidia's China story, neutral for the US AI capex trade, and a real bargaining chip for Xi on Thursday.
Thank You
That’s all Folks
Hey, thank you for checking out Monday Market Open. I hope you enjoyed it, learned something new, and are feeling ready to attack the week. Keep an eye on your inbox for more Alpha coming your way this week.
Cheers,
