---
title: "Monday's Market Open"
url: "https://www.readplaza.com/articles/CK7krWXLSOe"
type: "article"
publisher: "VHLA"
published: "2026-09-29T04:00:00+00:00"
updated: "2026-10-03T07:34:24.792824+00:00"
reading_time_minutes: 5
tags: ["Gold"]
---

# Monday's Market Open
_Deal Denied, Dario IPOs_

Dear Winner,

 Trump looked at Iran's "open Hormuz in seven days" offer and said no. Oil spiked $4 and gave it all back by lunch.

 Gold didn't get the memo. Down 3.8%, worst day since summer, on a day the war premium came back. The hedge got fired. 

 Then at 7:23 PM Reuters got its hands on Anthropic's IPO prospectus. $4.6B revenue, $42B net loss, $518B in compute obligations, $2 trillion price tag. Same day OpenAI paused training because its AI escaped the sandbox again.

 PCE Wednesday. Micron Wednesday night. Jobs Friday. 

 Let’s get into it 

Dario promoting an IPO while saying AI’s gonna kill us all

THE TAPE

Where We're AtAs of Monday, September 28 • 10:00 PM ET

INDICIESLASTCHGDAYS&P 5007,683.69-59.72-0.77%Nasdaq26,820.38-248.34-0.92%Dow51,481.51-347.11-0.67%Russell 20002,817.91-19.64-0.69%TSX35,489.86-311.03-0.87%US TREASURYSYIELDCHGBPS2-Year4.94%+8 bp+810-Year5.24%+6 bp+6CRUDESETTLECHGDAYWTI$92.60+0.19+0.2%Brent$105.28+0.96+0.9%METALSLASTCHGDAYGold$4,155.20-166.00-3.84%Silver$61.53-2.77-4.31%Copper$6.72-0.00-0.04%CROSS-ASSETLASTCHGDAYBitcoin$83,547-916-1.08%VIX16.07+1.20+8.07%DXY101.18+0.15+0.15%News

The RecapUSA - Dow was off 400 at the lows. September is now flat for the S&P. Breadth is garbage: only 27% of S&P names above their 50-day MA. Not a good sign.

Rates - 10-year at 5.24%, Dollar at a two-month high. October hike odds sit around 66% after the Fed took funds to 3.75-4.00% on the 16th. Bessent asked the Fed to keep an "open mind." The market's mind is made up. 

Oil - Trump rejected the seven-day Hormuz plan (lift the blockade, release the assets, then the strait opens). Talks resume this week through Qatar on an amended version. Meanwhile 132 transits last week versus 116 the week before and Gulf exports hit 12.8M bpd in September, most since the war started. 

Gold - December futures -3.8% to $4,155, lowest since August 5. Silver -4.3% to $61.53. Oil up means hike odds up means real yields up. 

AI - $NVDA added $150B to its buyback, total $235B, biggest ever. OpenAI paused training on its top models after an agent broke out of its sandbox on September 20. 

Anthropic - 2025 revenue $4.6B, up 12x. Operating loss $8B+. Compute spend $7.33B, triple last year. Cash $20.28B. Forward compute commitments $518B. A quarter of revenue from two customers. Target valuation $2 trillion+, listing likely after the midterms. 

Canada - TSX fell 311 points (-0.87%) to 35,489.86, a one-month low. Materials, telecoms and financials led it down, energy the only green. Greer says Washington sees "no urgency" on a Canada deal. Loonie near 70.6 cents. 

Crypto - Bitcoin slipped to about $83K, down 1.5%, lower with everything else that doesn't pay a coupon. Ethereum near $2,690. No crypto catalyst, just rates. 

Currently in the White House…

News

THE WEEK AHEAD Tuesday

 Trump and Speaker Johnson host the AI CEOs at the White House. Watch for regulation language and any Anthropic-Pentagon thaw 

 Qatar-brokered US-Iran talks on the amended Hormuz proposal 

 10:00 AM ET: August JOLTS, September consumer confidence 

 Earnings: $CCL, $KMX before the bell 

Wednesday

 8:15 AM ET: ADP September payrolls 

 8:30 AM ET: August PCE. Consensus headline +0.4% m/m, 3.7% y/y. Core +0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y. Williams wants monthly core at 0.2% or less. Consensus says 0.3%. Do the math 

 8:30 AM ET: Q2 GDP third estimate 

 Canada: July GDP and August flash from StatCan 

 Earnings after the close: $MU fiscal Q4, Street at roughly $31.45 EPS versus $3.03 a year ago. Options positioning is wildly bullish, which is usually where the pain is. Also $CAG, $JBL, $CALM 

 Quarter end. Rebalancing flows into the close 

Thursday

 10:00 AM ET: September ISM manufacturing, August construction spending 

 Challenger job cuts before the open 

 Earnings after the close: $NKE fiscal Q1, the only Dow name reporting this week. Also $ACN, $MKC 

Friday

 8:30 AM ET: September nonfarm payrolls. Consensus 85K to 100K after August's 162K blowout. Unemployment rate and hourly earnings alongside 

 10:00 AM ET: August factory orders 

Opinion

Grocer GainsSlate Grocery REIT ($SGR.UN) is being taken private for US$13 a unit, cash, US$2.3 billion enterprise value. Buyers are Brixmor ($BRX), the biggest open-air shopping centre landlord in the States, plus Everview Partners with Abu Dhabi's ADIA writing a cheque alongside. Close expected Q1 2027. 

How it happened. May 22: Slate's own external manager, Slate Asset Management, lobs an unsolicited bid. Board forms a special committee and runs a process. Sept 23: the REIT suspends distributions and the units sell off. Five days later the committee announces a deal at a 20% premium to that beaten-down print and a 13% premium to the pre-review price. Slate Asset Management, the guy who started the bidding, loses to Brixmor and walks away with a US$50 million termination fee on its management contract. Not a bad consolation prize for losing.

The math. 115 properties, roughly 15 million square feet, mostly Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, 96% leased. Brixmor takes 23 centres for US$636 million, the JV takes the other 92 for US$1.71 billion. Slate was paying US$0.864 a year in distributions, so at US$13 the buyers are paying a 6.6% yield for grocery-anchored real estate with a 10-year at 5.24%. That's a 140 bp spread over Treasuries for Kroger and Publix paying rent. Tight, but that's the price of "boring." 

Why you care. This is the pattern of 2026: Canadian-listed, US-asset REITs trading at a discount to what the private market will pay. American buyers with cheaper capital and a weak loonie show up and close the gap. $SGR.UN traded around C$16 in August. US$13 at 70.6 cents is roughly C$18.40. The units were public for years and the market never priced it. It took a sovereign wealth fund and a New York landlord to do it. 

Where else does that gap exist? We’re looking for it. 

VHLA does not own the tickers named and may buy or sell at any time. No relationship, paid or otherwise, with Slate Grocery REIT, Brixmor or Everview.

Thank You

That’s all Folks Hey, thank you for checking out Monday Market Open. I hope you enjoyed it, learned something new, and are feeling ready to attack the week. Keep an eye on your inbox for more Alpha coming your way this week. 

 Cheers, 

 SHOW SOME LOVE