Alright patriots, one more session before the weekend. Lock in.

Big week to be alive. Nvidia reported, software ripped, Bitcoin bumped, inflation stayed hot, oil found its floor, and the new Fed chair talks tomorrow morning with the whole market's melt-up sitting in his lap. Pause.

Some of what you need to know before Warsh is below. Let's get into it.

The Session

Market Indices & Commodities

Markets

The Inflation Print Nobody Wanted

Yesterday's PCE came in hot. Headline printed 0.2% on the month and 3.7% on the year against a 3.6% forecast. Core held at 3.3%, in line, but the direction of travel is the problem: that is the Fed's own gauge refusing to cooperate, again, in the same week everyone is celebrating an AI earnings beat. The rest of the data did not help either. Q2 GDP confirmed at 1.5%, durable goods up 1.1% against 0.5% expected, jobless claims down a second straight week. Nothing in there argues for easing.

And the bond market noticed even if stocks did not. Yields rose a second straight session today, the 10-year up 2 basis points to 4.67% and the 30-year back at 5.20%, as hike-before-year-end bets firmed. The only thing that held the long end together earlier this week was oil sliding and the Treasury's plan to at least double its bond buybacks, a plan Druckenmiller is publicly calling a credibility problem for the Treasury market. So the setup into tomorrow is this: sticky 3.7% inflation, strong data, a long end being propped by its own issuer, and stocks at records. Pick which one of those is telling the truth.

We find out tomorrow. Jackson Hole kicked off today and Kevin Warsh gives his first speech as Fed chair Friday morning. First keynote, new chair, hot print in his back pocket, softer growth on the other side of the scale. If he comes out swinging at 3.7%, this melt-up hits a wall. If he blinks at the growth data, the runway is clear into September. Do not carry hero size overnight into a speech that can reprice everything. That is not fear, that is math.

Opinion

Barrels Far Away From the Blast Zone

Like everyone else we’re seeing new SNAFUs day in day out. Crudes fluctuating like it’s microdosing reta. Tonight though, a floor showed up, and it’s looking good time to be in market if you’re not renting in an active warzone.

Since explosives and oil don’t mix I’m looking for exposure to the barrels that won’t end up like that one janitor…

The boring angle: $XOM has Guyana, offshore South America. Safe domiciling, but big and not sexy. The Canadian: $CNQ.TO/CNQ long-life, low-decline barrels heading South, slow but usually stable. Risk here is high imo given the ongoing cross border bitchfight’s potential to bleed in.

What We’re Eyeing: $MNRG.V/MNMRF. Why? For us, the math makes a lot of sense. Their premise? Funding O&G exploration in New Zealand. So far they have wells flowing at 568 bbl/d and 300 bbl/d respectively. Sounds small, until you realize even at $80 a barrel they’d be set to make ballpark $25M annually on a roughly $5M marketcap… not fucking bad. They also just had a bid approved for a new site was with two identified gas prospects. Most importantly for me, it’s about as far away from Hormuz as you can fucking get….

Looking Ahead

What to Watch

• Friday morning - Kevin Warsh's debut keynote at Jackson Hole. The only event that matters this week. Every asset class is positioned around this speech.

• After hours tonight - $GAP up 15% on a mixed quarter plus a new Old Navy CEO, $MRVL down about 6% on soft gross margin guidance. Futures are near flat, everyone is sitting on their hands until Warsh talks.

• Rates - Watch the 10-year off the speech. It is at 4.67% and rising into the keynote, and it will tell you whether Warsh landed hawkish or dovish faster than any headline will.

• Chips - Does the Nvidia pop hold a second day, or does it fade into the weekend?

Thank You

That’s all Folks

Just one more fucking day, I can smell it…