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The Shit To Know (Friday)
Fuck me I'm ready for The Long Weekend
By VHLA ·
Alright patriots, couple more hours before the LONG weekend. Lock in.
The jobs number just blew the doors off, "good news" is tanking your portfolio, and the Fed walks towards its meeting in eleven days with a loaded coin in its pocket.
Some of what you need to know before fucking off to the dock is below. Let's go.
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THE TAPE
Market Indicies & Commodities
As of Friday, September 4 • 1:15 PM ET
| INDEX / ASSET | LAST | CHG | DAY |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Giving back Thursday's rip | 7,709 | -39 | -0.50% |
| Nasdaq Rate anxiety back on | 26,467 | -117 | -0.44% |
| Dow Jones Up 624 Thursday, 361 back today | 53,325 | -361 | -0.67% |
| $LULU First sub-$100 print since 2018 | $99.97 | -21.80 | -17.9% |
| Sept Hike Odds 162K payrolls vs 55K expected | ~65% | +10 pts | Rising |
| 10Y Treasury Waller relief lasted one session | 4.77% | +3 bp | Rising |
| WTI Crude Hormuz premium, strong week | $92.00 | — | Holding |
| Gold 1% dip after a 2.5% rip | $4,488 | -52 | -1.15% |
| Bitcoin Holding 80K through the repricing | $80,876 | -136 | -0.2% |
Green = up on the day, red = down. Payrolls tripled the estimate at 162K, hike odds jumped to roughly 65% for the September 15-16 meeting, and the whole tape repriced: stocks red, yields up, the dollar bid, gold breathing out after Thursday's rip. $LULU is the single-name carnage of the day.
Markets
The Jobs Report Nuked The Rally
Traders Thinking They Got off Easy
162,000 jobs. Consensus was 55,000. The August payrolls print came in at triple expectations this morning, the biggest monthly gain in five months, with June and July revised up another 55,000 combined. Unemployment held at 4.1%, wages rose 0.3% on the month.
Great news, right? The market disagrees. The Dow is down around 0.7% near 53,325, the S&P is off about half a percent around 7,709, and the Nasdaq is down roughly 0.4% near 26,467, handing back a chunk of yesterday's rip.
Good news is bad news, and here's why. Rate futures now imply about a 65% chance the Fed hikes at the September 15-16 meeting, up from roughly 55% before the report. Yesterday's entire rally was built on Waller talking the hike odds down to a coin flip. One data print and the coin flipped right back. Yields rose, the dollar bounced, and yesterday's rate-relief trade got repossessed before lunch.
Opinion
The Fed Is A Reality Show Now
Count the factions. Governor Waller says he'll support holding rates if inflation keeps improving. Chair Kevin Warsh pledged at Jackson Hole to keep inflation under control, which markets read as hike risk. VP Vance said Thursday the Fed should cut to make housing affordable. And Trump called this morning's report a "great jobs number" while telling the Fed to lower rates, not hike, posting that the Fed Board must "be patriots for a change."
A chair leaning hike, a governor leaning hold, and a White House screaming cut.
The tiebreakers land next week: PPI hits Thursday, September 10 and CPI hits Friday, September 11, both at 8:30 AM ET, and economists are openly saying those two prints have the power to decide whether the Fed hikes or holds on the 16th. Everything between now and then is noise.
Looking Ahead
What to Watch
Markets closed Monday for Labor Day - shortened week, thin books, bigger moves
PPI Thursday Sept 10, CPI Friday Sept 11, both 8:30 AM ET - the prints that decide hike vs. hold
Fed meeting September 15-16 - now roughly 65/35 toward a hike
BOJ - markets are pricing a possible Bank of Japan hike this month; watch the yen
Thank You
That’s all Folks
Just one more fucking day, I can smell it…
