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Monday's Market Open
Canada's out in the cold
By VHLA ·
Dear Winner,
The week everyone’s been waiting for just fired its opening shots.
Bessent unveiled "Operation Economic Outcast" against Iran this afternoon, Trump escalated the Canada trade war with a 50% auto tariff threat, and chips got taken behind the woodshed.
Somehow that was the quiet part. Nvidia reports Wednesday, PCE hits the same morning, and Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair on Friday.
Four trading days left. Buckle the fuck up.
THE TAPE
Where We're At
As of Monday, Aug 24 • 5:00 PM ET • Close
| INDICIES | LAST | CHG | DAY |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,652.86 | -21.51 | -0.28% |
| Nasdaq | 25,980.19 | -200.26 | -0.76% |
| Dow | 53,417.16 | +140.15 | +0.26% |
| TSX | 36,671.53 | +51.30 | +0.14% |
| US TREASURYS | YIELD | CHG | BPS |
| 2Y | 4.24% | +5 bp | +5 |
| 10Y | 4.71% | -3 bp | -3 |
| CRUDE | LAST | CHG | DAY |
| WTI | $84.88 | -$2.18 | -2.50% |
| Brent | $92.02 | -$2.37 | -2.51% |
| METALS | LAST | CHG | DAY |
| Gold | $4,654.05 | +$46.70 | +1.01% |
| Silver | $68.79 | -$0.16 | -0.23% |
| Copper (LME 3M) | $14,201/t | +$63/t | +0.40% |
| CROSS-ASSET | LAST | CHG | DAY |
| Bitcoin | $78,800 | +$1,024 | +1.32% |
| DXY | 99.00 | +0.20 | +0.21% |
Green = up, red = down.
News
The Recap
USA - Mixed close Monday with damage concentrated in memory and semis: VIX ticked up to 15.85.
USA - The 10Y eased to 4.71%, the 30Y to 5.25% off QE with extra steps.
Canada - Talks collapsed late Friday, 50% US tariffs on roughly $28B of Canadian goods (building materials, liquor) went live.
Canada - Carney said the US "asked too much and offered too little", promising dollar-for-dollar retaliation. US announced tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks and parts jump to 50% in January.
Canada - The TSX closed flat around 36,620 . Loonie hovering near 72 cents.
Commodities - Gold kept climbing, December contract up 0.5% to $4,704.60, extending its fifth straight weekly gain streak into the new week.
News
THE WEEK AHEAD
Tuesday, August 25
July Durable Goods Orders, Conference Board Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Case-Shiller
Canadian big bank Q3 earnings kick off this week ($BNS traditionally leads Tuesday)
Wednesday, August 26
July Core PCE, consensus +0.2% m/m, the last big inflation print before Jackson Hole
$NVDA after the bell. The last of the Mag Seven this season, reporting into a chip tape that just bled for two sessions. Straight-up referendum on the AI trade
Thursday, August 27
Q2 GDP second estimate, jobless claims, Pending Home Sales
Canada Q2 Current Account, 8:30 AM ET
Jackson Hole Symposium begins
$MRVL after the bell
Friday, August 28
Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, morning ET
Canada Q2 GDP and June monthly GDP, 8:30 AM ET, dropping the same morning as the speech
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final August)
Other earnings this week: $CRM, $CRWD, $SNPS, $INTU, $ZM, $WDAY, $ADSK, plus the rest of the Canadian banks through Thursday.
Opinion
Bitcoin’s Bullish on Bessent
BTC Holders watching Treasury vs Iran
Expanding on today's video Bitcoin just had its best week since 2024 while the S&P bled 1.4%. Why?
Start with what the Treasury is actually doing. Bessent doubled long-bond buybacks to $4 billion minimum per operation, confirmed today he can raid a trillion-dollar General Account to fund them, and branded the whole thing a "Treasury Twist."
Strip the branding off and it's this: the government is buying its own debt with printed short-term paper because nobody else wants to own the long end at these prices. The 2Y rose 5 bps today while the 10Y fell 3. That's not a market, that's a hose fight between the Treasury and everyone holding duration.
Crypto sniffed this out first. BTC ripped 22% last week starting the exact session Bessent announced the buybacks. That's not a coincidence and it's not a meme rally. It's the debasement trade with a new catalyst: when the Treasury starts doing QE cosplay to hold yields down, every hard asset gets a bid. Gold's up five straight weeks to $4,654. Bitcoin's at $78,800. Same trade, different wrapper.
Then today made it funnier. Operation Economic Outcast literally names digital assets as a sanctioned sector. The most aggressive financial blockade in history is being built partly to stop crypto from moving Iranian money, and Bitcoin closed green anyway. The market read that correctly: if the US is weaponizing the entire dollar system this hard, the asset nobody can freeze gets MORE valuable, not less. Every country watching Bessent threaten secondary sanctions on China is quietly doing the same math.
Here's the contrarian part: everyone's watching Nvidia Wednesday like it decides the market. It doesn't. Warsh does. If he shrugs at Jackson Hole Friday while the Treasury is fighting his bond market with a trillion-dollar slush fund, the debasement trade goes into overdrive and crypto is the highest-beta expression of it.
Our opinion at least…
Thank You
That’s all Folks
Hey, thank you for checking out Monday Market Open. I hope you enjoyed it, learned something new, and are feeling ready to attack the week. Keep an eye on your inbox for more Alpha coming your way this week.
Cheers,
