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The Shit To Know Thursdays
Soft CPI & PPI, S&P 7,800, Gold's Good (Again)
By VHLA ·
In partnership with
People who caught the Thursday Bottom
Alright patriots, one more session before the weekend. Lock In.
So, we saw nothing but death destruction and anticipation leading into Wednesday.
Warsh dropped his nuts on the table and hiked 25bps- only the market couldn’t get enough of it.
Today everything pumped, all four indexes rose, yields dropped, dollar jumped. Best day in six weeks.
What you’re not ready for? Japan might fuck us tonight….
The Session
Market Indices & Commodities
| INDICIES / ASSET | LAST | CHG | DAY |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Best day in six weeks | 7,640.82 | +88.57 | +1.17% |
| Nasdaq Chip gauge up 3% | 26,396.68 | +418.25 | +1.61% |
| Dow Jones Clawing back Wednesday's 631pt drop | 51,817.40 | +355.50 | +0.69% |
| S&P/TSX Gold and materials +3.6% | 35,870.83 | +379.56 | +1.07% |
| TSX Venture All 12 subgroups green | 917.82 | +21.80 | +2.40% |
| Brent Crude Saudi East-West pipeline restarting | $104.90 | -1.06 | -1.00% |
| WTI Crude Still triple digits | $102.00 | -0.51 | -0.50% |
| Gold Bid through the hike | $4,407.60 | +20.10 | +0.46% |
| US 10Y Snapped an 8-day rising streak | 5.01% | -3 bp | -3 |
| Fed Funds 16 of 18 dots see one more in 2026 | 3.75-4.00% | +25 bp | Hiked |
Rates
Warsh is a Warrior
Essentially that walk off
Quarter point Wednesday, unanimous 12-0, target range now 3.75% to 4.00%. First hike in over three years.
The dots matter more than the move. Sixteen of eighteen policymakers see at least one more before year end. Warsh refused to promise anything at the presser, which is his whole thing now. No guidance, data dependent, see you in December.
The 10Y finally retreated after breaching 5% for the first time since ‘07. Capital has a price again.
Markets
Musk’s Playing Both Sides
WSJ reported Wednesday that Zuckerberg, Huang and Musk each called Trump last month to kill a proposed AI oversight body. Demis Hassabis had floated a FINRA-style outfit, industry-funded, testing frontier models before deployment. Trump dropped it.
Funny, because Musk spent years as the loudest voice on AI risk. A few weeks ago he publicly backed Dario Amodei's call to slow frontier development and posted that Dario is right. Then he got on the phone and lined up with Jensen and Zuck, the two guys least interested in slowing down anything.
His stated objection is that a Hassabis-built regulator hands the rulebook to OpenAI, Anthropic and Google. Real argument. It also leaves SpaceXAI free to run, and unlike those two, SpaceXAI has published nothing on pacing its own models.
Brakes on the industry, throttle on himself. Safety is a position. Compute is a business.
Macro
Canada’s Getting Squeezed
Fresh US tariffs landed, Ottawa responded by streamlining energy project approvals and turning to Europe.
Very Canadian. Take a shot to the ribs, announce you’re looking for new friends
Problem is, the US has a little thing called the Monroe Doctrine, Trump’s already threatened to cut off trade with the US.
Loonie at 71.70 cents US, up in the air now as to where it lands… either way Canada’s gonna need some good luck.
Alpha
We’re Watching Tesla
Around $336.87 recently. High of $498.83 in June, low of $297.38 in late July.
A third off the high while the AI story gets louder every week, which tells you the market hasn’t bought it.
Capex guide north of $25B this year, backstopped by up to $30B in new debt. At a 4% funds rate that debt is a line item with teeth.
Cybercab launched in Austin September 3, Musk didn’t show, stock fell 6% the next day, NHTSA opened an audit query.
The $1T pay package needs an $8.5T market cap to fully vest, roughly seven times where it sits, but we know Musk hasn’t failed the goals the market once called crazy.
The trade lives in the gap between Tesla the car company and Tesla the AI company, and how long the market funds that gap at 4% money.
Watching. Not chasing.
Looking Ahead
What to Watch
Friday, Aug 14, 8:30 AM ET July retail sales, the consumer read after two soft inflation prints
Friday, Aug 14, 10:00 AM ET Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary August
Tonight after close $AMAT fiscal Q3, the chip-equipment verdict on AI capex
Aug 26 $NVDA earnings, the main event
Sept 15-16 FOMC meeting, hold odds now in the driver's seat
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Aaron is an entrepreneur, investor, Co-founder and CEO of Box, and one of the most influential voices on AI transformation.
He’ll join Eoghan McCabe, Fin's Co-founder and CEO, for a fireside chat on leading their companies through the biggest technology shift in history. They’ll get into the key decision points in their journeys, the challenges they faced and how they navigated through them.
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Thank You
That’s all Folks
Just one more fucking day, I can smell it…
