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The Shit To Know Thursday
SNAFU Season... Not for CAD
By VHLA ·
Alright Patriots we’re one session away from the patios, let’s close out this SNAFU of a week.
Today’s we’re covering: Carney’s closeness to a deal, Bitcoin’s Bump and the tough talk towards Tehran.
Let's get into it.
CAD back to back
The Session
Market Indices & Commodities
| INDEX / ASSET | LAST | CHG | DAY |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Treasury buyback relief lasted one day | 7,641.16 | -66.82 | -0.87% |
| Nasdaq | 26,067.17 | -263.92 | -1.00% |
| Dow Jones Worst day since July 29, $WMT -9% | 52,759.21 | -703.84 | -1.32% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,012.01 | -20.93 | -0.69% |
| Brent Crude 5th straight green day, best since July 24 | $93.78 | +2.20 | +2.4% |
| WTI Crude | $86.64 | +2.28 | +2.7% |
| Gold Holding above $4,500 | $4,537 | -8.50 | -0.2% |
| Bitcoin $3B short squeeze, biggest since 2021 | $72,000 | +8% |
Markets
CA/USA Deal’s “Close”
Today we had Model UN chuds spend three hours only to get "very close" to sealing the deal… definitely doesn’t remind me of the 11th grade…
Humour aside, if shit isn’t in order by tomorrow night 50% tariffs land on ~ $30B of Canadian goods.
The Deal So Far
Steel and aluminum tariffs drop to 25%, with a quota system.
Auto tariffs on non-US content fall to 15% from 25%.
Trump’s saying US farmers get tariff-free access into Canada, dairy lobby stays seething,
Chance of a Keystone XL revival
The loonie already voted. CAD firmed to around US$1.388 on the announcement and it's holding, with $90-plus crude doing some of the lifting underneath.
Be careful, this relief priced on a framework, not a signed deal. If Friday's paperwork slips, every basis point of this move comes back out. Watch $STLC and the steel complex, $MG and $LNR on the auto relief, and the TSX broadly. The quota fine print decides whether the steel trade is real or a headline fade.
Crypto
Bitcoin’s Bumping
>$3B in shorts just got sent to. After 6 weeks stuck in a range and a miserable 2026, BTC ripped past $74,800 and ETH jumped 18% to $2,340 in the biggest short squeeze since 2021.
The fuel: Treasury doubling its long-bond buybacks, the SEC proposing capital-raising rules for crypto, and Trump leaning on the Senate to pass the Clarity Act.
Keep it honest though. Bitcoin's high was $126K last October. This is a squeeze off the floor. If spot buyers and ETF flows show up behind the forced buying, it has legs.
Watching the September Clarity Act vote.
Commodities
Treasury v Tehran
Today after US-Iran negotiations broke down Bessent dropped this bar: "we are going to collapse this regime" with the toughest sanctions in history. Monday he’s doing a presser to explain… another weekend in limbo.
Meanwhile the market’s buying Brent like it’s on sale, sending it up 2.4% to $93.78, the highest in weeks.
On the ground, reality hasn’t changed, we’ve lost a shit load of refineries and Hormuz’s only doing a few transits a day vs 130 before the war. Prices being this low are only due to paper, and the crack spread’s showing it.
At least CAD might have another catalyst…
Looking Ahead
What to Watch
Friday night - Canada-US trade deal deadline. Binary. Signed deal holds the loonie and TSX gains, blown deadline = likely a full reversal.
Saturday - If Friday slips, the 50% tariffs take effect. Any weekend signing ceremony or leak of final quota numbers moves steel and auto names at Monday's open.
Weekend risk - Crypto trades 24/7 and just squeezed $3 billion of shorts. Thin weekend liquidity plus Greed-level sentiment is how Sunday-night candles get ugly, in either direction.
Monday - Bessent press conference on the Iran economic plan.
Next week - Jackson Hole, Aug 27-29. This year's theme is financial innovation and payments, so Fed officials talk digital assets all weekend long, right on the heels of the crypto squeeze.
Thank You
That’s all Folks
Just one more fucking day, I can smell it…
