Santa Swapped His Reindeer for Commodity Bulls

Wall Street’s traditional Santa Claus rally is looking more like a no-show than a sleigh full of gains this year. After a roller-coaster 2025 filled with the DeepSeek meltdown, surprise tariffs, and endless AI valuation debates, strategists are bracing for volatility rather than champagne. Yet while the S&P 500 drifts and options traders hoard downside protection, a handful of junior mining stocks are quietly turning December into the most profitable holiday season in years.

Gold has already smashed past $4,200 an ounce, silver is up over 100% year-to-date to $58, and obscure critical minerals like antimony and tungsten have seen prices multiply five-fold since 2020 thanks to Chinese export curbs. For small-cap explorers sitting on the right rocks in the right jurisdictions, that translates into share-price moves that make even the hottest AI names blush.

In gold country, Onyx Gold (TSXV: ONYX) is up more than 600% this year by methodically expanding the historic Munro-Croesus high-grade system in Ontario’s Timmins camp. Dryden Gold (TSXV: DRY) has doubled on the back of a 20-kilometre strike extension at its Elora project, while Newcore Gold (TSXV: NCAU) keeps delivering thicker, near surface intercepts at Enchi in Ghana as it works toward a pre feasibility study, with a 2024 PEA already outlining a heap leach starter operation.

Silver juniors are stealing even more spotlight. Vizsla Silver’s (TSXV: VZLA) November 2025 feasibility study for Panuco outlines an after tax NPV(5%) of roughly 1.8 billion dollars and average annual output of 17.4 million silver equivalent ounces, with first pour targeted for 2027. Sun Silver (ASX: SS1) has grown the Maverick Springs resource by roughly two thirds to about 480 million silver equivalent ounces, making it the largest pre production primary silver project on the ASX.

When it comes to antimony, the Pentagon itself is writing cheques. United States Antimony Corporation (NYSE American: UAMY) locked in a potential $245 million Department of Defense contract and is expanding its Thompson Falls, Montana smelter to several times its current output, with the upgrade scheduled to complete by the end of 2025.  Military Metals (OTCQB: MILIF | CSE: MILI) is consolidating historic Canadian antimony districts and drilling their flagship property in Slovakia, and NevGold (TSXV: NAU) stunned the market with surface samples grading up to 10 % antimony alongside gold in Nevada.

Tungsten, another Chinese-controlled metal now facing export restrictions, has Almonty Industries (TSX: AII) is bringing its giant Sangdong mine in South Korea into production, with company guidance that it could eventually supply around 7 to 10% of global tungsten demand once fully ramped. Tungsten Mining (ASX: TGN) just expanded its Mt Mulgine resource in Western Australia to world-class scale.

Even the broader critical-minerals basket is loaded with catalysts. Lithium Americas (TSX: LAC) has secured a 2.26 billion dollar DOE loan and a major JV with GM for Thacker Pass, which together cover most of the initial project funding. Standard Lithium (TSXV: SLI) is commercialising direct extraction in Arkansas, and MP Materials (NYSE: MP) continues to ramp America’s only rare-earth mine with fresh Department of Defense backing.

The punchline? While the broader market frets over an uncertain Fed cut and sector rotation, these sub-$500 million market-cap stories are backed by real supply deficits, government cheques, and record metal prices. As Schwab’s Omar Aguilar put it this week: “Rebalance. This is the time.”

Santa may have left the building, but the junior miners just turned on the Christmas lights.

Sources:

1. Yahoo Finance, “I don’t know if we’ll get that Santa rally”, Allie Canal, Dec 1 2025

2. CME FedWatch Tool (Dec 1 2025)

3. USGS 2025 Critical Minerals List

4. U.S. Department of Energy & Department of Defense funding announcements 2025

5. Company press releases and technical reports: Onyx Gold, Dryden Gold, Newcore Gold, Vizsla Silver, Sun Silver, United States Antimony, Military Metals, NevGold, Almonty Industries, Tungsten Mining, Lithium Americas, Standard Lithium, MP Materials (Q3/Q4 2025)

6. London Bullion Market Association, Shanghai Metals Market, and Asian Metal pricing data (Dec 1 2025)

Disclosure: 

The author may have long positions in one or more of the securities mentioned in this article. The content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.