---
title: "The Shit To Know Thursdays"
url: "https://www.readplaza.com/articles/uETaXcKdQVO"
type: "article"
publisher: "VHLA"
published: "2026-10-09T04:08:46+00:00"
updated: "2026-10-09T10:39:49.034683+00:00"
reading_time_minutes: 4
---

# The Shit To Know Thursdays
_No Bombs Before Ballots_

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Alright patriots, one more session before the weekend. Lock in.

 OpenAI's revenue got re-measured $20 billion lower by lunch, the chip trade puked, and oil ripped 5% before Trump promised not to bomb anybody until after the midterms. 

 The Nasdaq ate it. The Dow didn't even notice. 

 And Canada's jobs number lands at 8:30 tomorrow.

Buckle up.

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Where We're AtAs of the close • Thursday, October 8, 2026

INDICESLASTCHGDAYS&P 5007,765.36-0.47%DOWNNasdaq27,193.34-1.25%DOWNDow51,231.64+0.10%UPS&P/TSX35,145.38+0.30%UPUS TREASURYSLASTCHGDAY10-Year Yield5.23%-5 bpDOWNCRUDELASTCHGDAYBrent$104.28+4.1%UPWTI$91.49+3.6%UPMETALSLASTCHGDAYGold (Dec)$4,157.00+0.39%UPSilver (Dec)$59.42-1.5%DOWNCROSS-ASSETLASTCHGDAYBitcoin$81,816-2.1%DOWNChips puked, crude ripped, and the Dow and TSX still closed green. Bitcoin is sitting at a one-month low, and Canada's jobs print lands at 8:30.

Rates

The Bond Market Blinked (For Once) The 10-year leaned on 5.35% again this morning, its highest neighbourhood since 2002. Then Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds and buyers actually showed up. Yields backed off and the 10-year finished around 5.23%. 

 Wednesday's Fed minutes set the frame. Officials aren't rushing to hike again in October, but most still see one more before year-end. Futures agree: roughly 20% odds of an October hike, about 80% by December. 

 That's the squeeze. Last Friday's payrolls came in at 29,000. Oil is back over $100. A Fed still leaning hawkish into a stalling job market and a fresh energy shock eventually has to pick which problem it's solving. 

One good auction doesn't make a bond bull.

Oil

No Bombs Pre Ballots$104.28. Brent settled up 4.1% after ripping more than 5% intraday. WTI added 3.6% to $91.49. 

 The fuel came from everywhere. Iranian attacks on tankers hit their highest weekly count of the war last week, and Hormuz transits slid to a two-month-plus low, per Kpler. Then Hurricane Isaias lined up the northern Gulf coast for a weekend landfall. BP, Chevron and Shell pulled non-essential staff offshore, and one model cited by Reuters puts up to 11.2 million barrels of production at risk. US crude stocks also fell 3.2 million barrels last week when the street expected a build. 

 Then Trump took the top off the move. He said talks with Tehran are going well and that the US "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections." The blockade stays. Iran says it's reviewing a US response to its offer to reopen the strait in seven days, conditions attached. 

 Notice what he didn't say. He didn't take a strike off the table. He took it off the table until November 3. That's not a ceasefire. That's a calendar invite. 

A promise not to escalate isn't a plan to de-escalate.

Looking Ahead

What To Watch Friday, 8:30 AM ET: Canada's September jobs report. Unemployment was 6.4% in August. A soft print with oil at $104 is a weird mix for the loonie. 

Friday, 10:00 AM ET: UMich preliminary October consumer sentiment. Watch the inflation expectations, not the headline. 

This weekend: Hurricane Isaias makes landfall on the northern Gulf coast. Gulf barrels are the swing factor for Monday's oil open. 

Monday, Oct 12: TSX closed for Thanksgiving. Wall Street trades. 

Tuesday, Oct 13: $JPM kicks off bank earnings before the open. 

Wednesday, Oct 14: US September CPI, the big inflation read before the Oct 27 to 28 Fed meeting. 

Thank You

That’s all Folks Just one more fucking day, I can smell it…