---
title: "The Shit To Know Thursdays"
url: "https://www.readplaza.com/articles/wa8lzSKiSuu"
type: "article"
publisher: "VHLA"
published: "2026-09-10T22:02:01+00:00"
updated: "2026-09-16T18:46:53.870522+00:00"
reading_time_minutes: 5
tags: ["AI"]
---

# The Shit To Know Thursdays
_Fuck me I'm ready for Friday_

Alright patriots, one more session before the weekend. Lock in.

 Four red days in a row. Oil through $100 and not looking back. 

 The 10-year at levels most of you have never traded through. And the Fed meets in six days with the market now pricing a HIKE, not a cut. If you feel like the ground moved this week, it did. 

Here's the shit to know.

The Session

Market Indices & CommoditiesINDEX / ASSETLASTCHGDAYS&P 500
Fourth straight red day7,591.70-44.66-0.58%Nasdaq
Chips sold on yields, again26,081.73-171.62-0.65%Dow Jones52,064.10-316.56-0.60%VIX
Vol waking up into FOMC week17.84+1.38+8.38%Sept Hike Odds
Was a coin flip two weeks ago~70%CMERising$ORCL
$30B in AI cloud deals booked, +6% after hours$158.62AH+6% AH10Y Treasury
52wk high, whole curve repricing the hike4.95%+11 bpRising30Y Treasury5.37%+8 bpRisingWTI Crude
Through $100, highest since May$103.86+7.81+8.1%Brent Crude
Tagged $107 intraday, best since July~$107+3.9%+RippingGold
Real yields bite, war bid loses$4,357-103.10-2.3%Bitcoin$77,228-905-1.2%Markets

Crude Just Repriced EverythingDo I have a 10x WTI crypto perp long?

Oil is the whole story right now and everything else is a footnote. WTI ripped through triple digits and settled near $103.86, up almost 8% on the day. Brent tagged $106 intraday, its highest print since July. The Iran war keeps escalating, Asian buyers keep stacking barrels, and every session the strait stays hot is another dollar on the front month. 

 The equity tape did what it always does when energy costs spike into a levered economy - it sold. $SPX closed 7,591.70, down 0.58%. Nasdaq 26,081.73, down 0.65%. Dow off 0.60% to 52,064. Small caps got it worst, Russell down over 1%. Fourth straight red day for the majors, which has only happened once this year, back in March, right before a 10% flush. 

Gold got smoked too, down 2.3% to $4,357. That one confuses people. Isn't war good for gold? Not when real yields are ripping. The 10-year hit 4.92%, a ten year high, and suddenly the zero-yield rock has competition. Bitcoin slipped 1.2% to the $77K zone for the same reason. Cash pays now. Everything gets repriced against that. 

 Disclaimer: I am longing the fuck out of WTI 

Opinion

Software That Sells Doesn't Care What Oil Costs Everything with a multiple got repriced this week. 10-year at 4.92% and suddenly nobody wants to pay 40x for a growth story. Except one corner of tech keeps getting paid anyway: AI that replaces payroll. 

 When money's expensive, the software that cuts headcount is the only pitch a CFO still takes the meeting for so I'm looking for exposure to the robots taking your job, not the ones writing poems... 

 The boring angle: $CRM. Put up a 22% day two weeks back on actual agent revenue, not roadmap slides. Massive, proven, and priced like it. The other safe-ish one: $NOW, same enterprise agent story, same problem, everyone already owns it. 

 What We're Eyeing: $SCAI.V/SCTLF. Why? The math is early but it's real. SalesCloser builds AI sales agents that run the calls, demos, and follow-ups themselves. Revenue up 90% last quarter, up 235% over nine months, at a 70% gross margin... on a roughly $26M cap. Three granted US patents, a Twilio partnership, and a top-ten global life insurer already deployed in LatAm. $3.8M cash, zero debt, but they burn about $1.4M a quarter, so a raise is coming eventually. 

 Most importantly for me, while everyone's watching Hormuz, this thing's revenue driver is corporate payroll math, and that trade works in every macro environment… 

 Disclaimer: Not compensated, we just like the stock 

Not gonna be me

Opinion

PPI Was Fine. Nobody Cared.Wholesale inflation came in exactly on script and the market sold it anyway. August PPI printed +0.4% headline, matching consensus, with core at +0.2%, actually a touch under the 0.3% estimate. Six months ago that print rallies the tape 1%. Today it did nothing, because everyone knows the August data doesn't have the September oil spike in it yet.

 That's the trap. The inflation data you're getting is a photograph of a house that's already on fire. CPI hits Friday morning, consensus +0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y, and even a clean print gets an asterisk because crude has added double digits since the survey window closed. 

The Fed meets September 15-16 and hike odds are now the base case conversation. After that monster payrolls print last week (162K vs 55K expected) and oil doing what it's doing, Warsh walks into that room with zero cover to ease. Watch the front end, not the press conference. 

August Oil Prices Taunting Us

Looking Ahead

What to WatchTonight

$ORCL and $ADBE calls. Both reported after the bell. The guides matter more than the prints - software multiples in a 4.9% world need a reason to exist. 

Crude overnight. WTI settled near $104 after an 8% day. Asian session tells you if this was a squeeze or a new floor. Every Iran headline is a candle. 

Tomorrow (Friday)

8:30 AM ET - August CPI. Consensus +0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y. Last inflation data before the Fed decides. Hot print locks the hike. Even a clean print gets discounted because September's oil spike isn't in the number yet. 

The streak. SPX is down four straight. Hasn't gone five all year. Friday either breaks the streak or breaks the chart. 

The Weekend

Iran headlines. The whole oil trade reprices on whatever happens between Friday close and Sunday. Nothing to do but be positioned before it. 

Sunday 6 PM ET - futures reopen. First crude and ES prints of the week tell you what the weekend was worth. 

Monday (through the close)

Quiet on data, loud on positioning. Fed's in blackout through the meeting, no speakers, no leaks. Monday is pure pre-FOMC de-risking or dip buying, and which one shows up tells you what Wednesday's setup is. 

Front-end yields. The 2-year into Monday's close is the market's final answer on hike odds before the committee sits down Tuesday morning. 

Thank You

That’s all Folks Just one more fucking day, I can smell it…