Galaxy's crypto discount is running out of time. Updating our take on original September 2025 thesis.

Since we posted:

✓ ERCOT approved an additional 830MW at Helios, doubling total approved capacity to 1.6GW

✓ $1.4B project financing closed, non-recourse to Galaxy's corporate balance sheet

✓ CoreWeave's contracted commitment locked at 526MW, 15-year lease, $1B+ average annual revenue

✓ First data hall delivered to CoreWeave in April 2026, marking the transition from construction to revenue

✓ 90% lease-level EBITDA margins confirmed on Q1 earnings call

✓ Galaxy consolidated to Nasdaq only

✓ CoreWeave sitting on $99.4B revenue backlog, counterparty risk is not the concern it was

What happens next:

Phase I (133MW) reaches full delivery by end of Q2. Q3 2026 is the first complete quarter of Helios operations. Analysts who have been running a crypto model on GLXY will have to rebuild it around contracted infrastructure cash flows at 90% margins. That process takes two to three earnings cycles. It starts July 28.

Our claim: Galaxy Digital ($GLXY) will report an annualized Helios data center revenue run-rate exceeding $250 million in its Q3 2026 earnings. Phase I at full capacity is 133 of 526 contracted megawatts. The math on the $1B+ annual contract gets you there. The stock still trades like a crypto proxy at Beta 3.6. Those two things will not both remain true.