China Tightens the Screws: The New Front in the Rare Earth Trade War

As geopolitical chess games go, the latest US-China spat over rare earth elements is less about checkmate and more about who controls the board's most magnetic pieces. With Beijing tightening the screws on exports of these critical minerals, essential for everything from electric vehicle motors to AI-powered data centers, the world is bracing for a supply squeeze that could ripple through global industries. Announced on October 9, 2025, China's expanded restrictions target defense technologies, semiconductors, and even lithium batteries, escalating tensions in a trade war that's already simmering hotter than a neodymium magnet. This move, which includes stricter licensing for 12 out of 17 rare earths starting November 8 and extraterritorial rules kicking in December 1, is widely seen as retaliation against U.S. curbs on advanced chip sales, reminding everyone that when it comes to rare earths, China holds about 70% of mining and 90% of processing capacity, talk about a monopoly that's anything but fun and games.

The implications are as broad as they are biting. Industries reliant on rare earth magnets, think EVs zipping down highways or wind turbines harnessing gusts, face potential bottlenecks that could stall the green energy transition and dampen the AI revolution. Beijing's new rules extend scrutiny to foreign companies using even trace amounts of Chinese-sourced rare earths, imposing export controls with a reach that feels almost extraterrestrial in its jurisdiction. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have fired back with threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1, accusing China of economic coercion while defending their own tech export bans as national security necessities. It's a classic tit-for-tat, but one that has investors rotating capital toward "real assets" with strategic punch, as gold hits records and crypto rides the volatility wave.

Amid this drama, rare earth stocks have been the Wall Street darlings, surging in anticipation of Western supply chain diversification. MP Materials Corp (NYSE: MP), the largest rare earth producer outside China, saw its shares rocket 21% on October 13 alone, hitting fresh highs before a slight pullback on October 14 as broader market jitters set in. Critical Metals Corp (NASDAQ: CRML) followed suit with a 26% jump, while USA Rare Earth Inc (NASDAQ: USAR) climbed over 11% in pre-market trading earlier this week, reflecting bets on U.S. government support to build independent supplies. These moves underscore a rush to secure non-Chinese sources, with the Department of Defense eyeing a $1 billion stockpile of critical minerals to weather any storm.

Then there's the antimony angle, where China's ongoing export curbs, tightened since August 2024 and intertwined with the rare earth saga—have lit a fire under related plays. Military Metals Corp (CSE: MILI; OTCQB: MILIF), a junior explorer whose shares have popped amid the buzz, trading around $0.60 as of October 14 after earlier gains tied to soaring antimony prices that hit $38,000 per tonne by late 2024, up 192% for the year. The company's West Gore project in Nova Scotia, a historic antimony-gold site, just delivered boulder samples grading 11.45% and 6.58% antimony, alongside soil anomalies hinting at untapped potential, news that dropped on October 14 and could fuel further upside as the U.S. hunts for domestic alternatives to China's 50-60% grip on global antimony supply. With antimony vital for munitions, batteries, and flame retardants, Military Metals Corp (CSE: MILI; OTCQB: MILIF) is positioning itself as a strategic beneficiary in this resource rivalry, especially as prices continue their upward march amid trade frictions.

As the dust settles, or rather, as the mineral dust gets hoarded, this episode highlights the fragility of global supply chains and the urgent push for diversification. While China defends its measures as legitimate self-protection, the West is accelerating investments, from JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM)'s $10 billion pledge in critical sectors to potential government stakes in miners. For investors, it's a reminder that in the world of critical minerals, fortunes can be unearthed overnight, but only if you're digging in the right geopolitical dirt.

Sources:

1. Reuters: China expands rare earths restrictions (web:0, web:16)

2. Washington Post: China's rare-earths power move (web:10)

3. Forbes: Rare Earth Stocks Decline (web:11)

4. Fortune: China's rare earth policy (web:12)

5. The Guardian: China says it will 'fight to end' (web:13)

6. CNBC: China: Trump tariffs for rare earths move (web:14)

7. Yahoo Finance: U.S. rare earth miners surge (web:15)

8. White & Case: China imposes extraterritorial jurisdiction (web:7)

9. Mayer Brown: PRC Announces New Export Controls (web:8)

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15. Reddit: 2025 Antimony Bull Market (web:37)

16. Junior Mining Network: Military Metals Summarizes 2024 (web:38)

17. AInvest: Antimony's Soaring Price (web:40)

18. Carbon Credits: The Future of Antimony (web:41)

19. Yahoo Finance: MP Materials Stock Climb (web:29)

20. Sherwood News: Rare earth stocks are Wall Street's hottest (web:30)

21. CNBC: Rare earths stocks surge (web:31)

22. AInvest: U.S. rare earth stocks rise (web:32)

23. Seeking Alpha: Trump administration explores stakes (web:33)

24. AOL: Why MP Materials Stock Just Popped (web:34)

25. Newsfile Corp: Military Metals Announces Boulder Sample (web:46)

26. Stock Titan: Military Metals Reports 11.45% Sb (web:48)

27. GlobeNewswire: Critical Minerals Becoming More Critical (web:51)

28. Stock Titan: MILIF Stock Price (web:53)

Disclaimer

The author holds shares in Military Metals Corp and may buy or sell at any time. This article is for informational purposes only, was prepared independently without company involvement, and utilized AI assistance. It is not investment advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.